The total number of new cases, T, is estimated from the number of malaria cases reported by a Ministry of Health. That is:
𝑇 = (a + (𝑐 × 𝑒) /𝑑) × (1 + ℎ / 𝑔 + ((1 − 𝑔 − ℎ) /2) /g)
Where:
a is malaria cases confirmed in public sector;
b is suspected cases tested;
c is presumed cases (not tested but treated as malaria);
d is reporting completeness;
e is test positivity rate (malaria positive fraction) = a/b;
f is cases in public sector, calculated by (a + (c x e))/d;
g is treatment seeking fraction in public sector;
h is treatment seeking fraction in private sector;
i is the fraction not seeking treatment, calculated by (1-g-h)/2;
j is cases in private sector, calculated by f x h/g;
k is cases not in private and not in public, calculated by f x i/g;
T is total cases, calculated by f + j + k.